gibbz, on , said:

That was posted on October 3.
Westlake Classic was on October 4.
Orem was missing two of their top 6 at the Westlake Classic, which would have moved them up with Davis and Lone Peak.

As for meets that had actually happened before that post was made?
-Westlake finished third at their Pre-Regional meet (82/79:09) while Herriman was fifth (108/79:51)
-Westlake finished fifth at BYU (138/86:35.8), with Desert Hills placing third (125/86:15.2) and Mountain View seventh (166/87:04.7).
-Westlake would have won the combined-flight race at Wasatch Rendezvous over Mountain View 35-63, but timewise it was closer at 82:28.3 to 82:40.1

So yes, aside from Desert Hills at BYU, Westlake had beaten all those teams. But the margin was never huge, and team results don't point out everything about the level of performance the individual athletes from those teams have shown over the multiple weeks of racing.

But this is all beside the point, because since that post, the Westlake Classic happened where Westlake ran their best race yet. That moved them up a group.

RunningPrince, on , said:

Already posted the ratings on the Utah forum.

Looking at the Pat Amato Invite (CO) right now... looks like Laramie WY did almost exactly what I outlined above. If their #1/2 runners were as fast as they could be, then that's going to move them up in the next update!

EDIT: Looks like Laramie's top duo (and normal #3/4) weren't as fast as they have been, unfortunately, but it is an improvement for their #5 (Freeman).


Pat Amato CO Ratings estimate (200.0 ~ 14:37)

Boys =

1 - Jonah Henry, Sr - 15:37.7 - Laramie High School - 179.3
2 - Chris Henry, So - 15:40.9 - Laramie High School - 178.2
3 - Shane Rhodes, Jr - 15:49.5 - Cherry Creek HS - 175.3
4 - Ethan Gonzales, Sr - 15:50.7 - Broomfield High School - 174.9
5 - Connor Lockwood, Sr - 15:54.6 - Arvada West High School - 173.6
6 - Jake Lucero, Sr - 15:58.7 - Douglas County - 172.1
7 - Daniel Book, Jr - 15:59.6 - Cherry Creek HS - 171.8
8 - Keaton Schelir, So - 16:00.4 - Fossil Ridge - 171.6
9 - Sean Paiz, Jr - 16:03.9 - Thornton High School - 170.4
10 - Satchel Caldwell, Jr - 16:04.9 - Boulder HS - 170.0


1 - Jonah Henry, Sr - 15:37.7 - Laramie High School - 179.3
2 - Chris Henry, So - 15:40.9 - Laramie High School - 178.2
20 - Jacob Morgan, So - 16:17.5 - Laramie High School - 165.7
32 - Jonathon Freeman, Jr - 16:37.2 - Laramie High School - 159.0
34 - Heath Geil-Haggerty, Jr - 16:38.3 - Laramie High School - 158.6
53 - Kevin Baldwin, Sr - 17:01.7 - Laramie High School - 150.6
116 - Calder Kempema, Sr - 17:59.7 - Laramie High School - 130.8

watchout if you have time and haven't already seen it go look up the results at the Westlake Classic in Utah on September 4th, a lot of very good nationally ranked teams in that boys Varsity race and very very close score. Only 13 points separating the 5th place team and the 1st place team.

Laramie absolutely has a chance. They are sitting on the end of the national bubble (US#50-55) and around NW#7-10. All they really need is for their #5 to be mixing it up with their #3/4 guys, Jacob Morgan and Heath Geil-Haggerty. If they can do that, they'd be looking very good for a top-5 finish in the NW. They have a good front two, and a solid enough #3/4, so that's the only piece missing at this point. The step from potential NW top-5 to potential NXN Invite would probably mean their #3/4 have to close the gap even more on their front duo though... say, within 30-45 seconds. But for a potential top-5 NW finish, the #5 runner is the concern.

Watchout. How about Laramie, Wyoming? How do they stack up with the Utah teams and the other Northwest teams? They have had some great success in Colorado and South Dakota and are well ahead of everyone in Wyoming. Do they have a chance?

cerutty fan, on , said:

Ha! Fair enough!

If we're going for football analogies here, I'll say that a meet with runners only competing against those in the same grade level is a bit like the NFL Combine.

Had West Virginia not been blown out 37-0 by #25 Maryland the week before, their narrow margin of victory over previously unbeaten Oklahoma State would likely have been enough to rank them ahead of the Cowboys.

I don't think you're crazy for agreeing with 44 out of 60 pollsters, but I do think you are crazy for following college football

You might find it interesting to know that 44 of the 60 voters in the AP College Football poll had Oklahoma State in their top 25 this week, and 0 had West Virginia in their top 25 this week, despite the fact that West Virginia beat Oklahoma State 30-21 last weekend.

Though maybe my opinion will change in the next few weeks, this week I would have voted the same - maybe all 45 of us would be crazy, but we'd still be in the majority. Just goes to show that I'm certainly not the only rankster who would place a team that to this point has seemed to be better ahead of a team that beat them when they met on the field.

Sometimes, the teams that seem to be better are going to lose, or teams that win might not have been the best to date this season. That happens, especially in cross country when there are dozens of teams on the field at the same time, and especially team scores are determined not only by the athletes and single competing teams, but the entirety of the field they are competing against. Team scores in a cross country meet are a representation of how well a team does on that day, on that course, against that field. The distinction of whether Team A is better than Team B is more complex than that, especially since we have more than one meet to judge teams with.

Note: I'm not saying the difference between Oklahoma State and West Virginia in college football this year is the same as the difference between, say, Brea Olinda and Canyon (Anaheim) boys cross country, it was just the first scenario that came to my mind.

Two things to say here.

1. I really do appreciate the lists you've put together! It's fun to check out the teams.
2. I think it's crazy to put more weight into your algorithm than the reality of head-to-head competitions that have taken place.

When Lone Peak lost to American Fork at Wasatch by 14 points they were also without their third runner.

Davis....BOOM !!!!!

Sorry for the delay, but I finally got some confirmation from the meet about entries ... and added those names that were missing. Those are very deep fields at Firman. Can't wait to see how things shake out.

Sarah Feeny from Ogden has been over-looked, she will win Bob Firman and get some of the recognition she has earned !! Also "watchout" for Ogden's Boys.
Timo, you guys need to add Bob Firman to your schedule and get out of Utah!

Kramer Morton of Alta will be running solo. The rest of the team is going to the Wasatch Invitational at Soldier Hollow.

Expect to se Kramer in the lead pack.

DougB, on , said:

That was last updated a few weeks ago (August 24).

Herriman and Ogden both have Bob Firman on their athletic.net schedules. Doesn't mean they got signed up in time, or are both sending their girls teams, but since they have both been attending the meet at times in the past, I wouldn't be surprised if they are on the line in Boise this Saturday.

Other programs to watch that are included on athletic.net but not on the last update of the meet page:

Timpanogos UT
Mountain Crest UT
Bingham UT
Alta UT
Rock Springs WY
Park City UT


... seems like the first time in a while that Mountain View UT isn't going to this meet.

I don't see Herriman or Ogden showing up on this list.
http://bobfirman.run...19&page_id=1368
But yes, Biles and Feeny (and their teams) belong in this story if they are in the meet.

On the girls side, I am expecting to see the 2012 #4 finisher (Lucy Biles, Herriman, UT) and #5 finisher (Sarah Feeny, Ogden, UT) run in this race again this year.

DougB, on , said:

We'd be there if we were in the Northwest Region. We'll be at Soldier Hollow instead. Normally Bob Firman is the same week as Nebo Invite, which is a closer match to Toka Sticks in Mesa, and the fastest legit 3 mi. course in Utah.

waveown, on , said:

Aha. Good catch! Fixed it.

Edit: For the girls, Davis (Utah) is ranked #22. Davis (California) is the one that's ranked #33.

good meet at Queensbury NY this weekend where 4 of the pre-season top 80 match-up,
#8 Northport
#45 Saratoga Springs
#58 Corning
#80 Liverpool

good luck to all the runners

Scott Joerger, on , said:

If I remember right, wasn't Centennial NV also listed as competing in both meets?

I guess we'll find out which meet they choose in a few days...

SteveU, on , said:

Haha sorry Steve! I will try to remember to call it how we usually do, California (Whittier). They were an NXN team last year so they are legit!

No offense, but whoever thought of naming a high school after the state where the high school resides ... well, that person is responsible for a LOT of damn confusion!

DougB, on , said:

DougB, on , said:

Interesting - California (Whittier) has Woodbridge on their website but I now see they aren't in the entries. McFarland, however, I see listed on both meet websites.

There are actually three from California, including California the High School.
http://bobfirman.run...19&page_id=1368

I'm not aware of any California team attending Bob Firman this year. If you hear of one please let me know.

Watchout for BobFirman, Boise ID, this weekend (Arcadia, North Central, Davis, & Ogden to name a few.

Check out runnercard.com 2013 results from Murray Invit: US # 63 Ogden UT - 1st with impressive times for 5K at altitude. Two under 16min & #5-16:30.

These types of predictions are great for banter, even the early meets will not prove as a measuring stick as some teams will be resting or having others racing a little different. I know in NY it will quiet until Mid/late October at the Manhattan Invitational and then the conference championships. Personally I think Northport and St. Anthonys ahead of Saratoga Springs and Fayetville is a mistake. Saratoga is the reigning state champs (yes they lost 1) and Fayetville is well Fayetville. But i guess if you are using the spring 3,200 times as a measuring stick that is the conclusion.