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Kipsang, Mutai Ready for Memorable Showdown in NYC - Men’s Preview

Published by
DyeStatPRO.com   Oct 30th 2014, 10:49pm
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The Dash to the Record...or Not

By Scott Bush

The TCS New York City Marathon course is far from the fastest in the world. Geoffrey Mutai’s (KEN) 2011 course record is 2:05:05. No athlete has ever come within 80 seconds of that mark and only two men have ever dipped under 2:07. Despite the need for near perfect conditions, a very consistent yet fast early effort, and some serious strength over the final 10k of the race, Mutai and countryman Wilson Kipsang have their eye on Mutai’s mark. 

The weather for Sunday looks a tad bit daunting. While the temperature should average somewhere around 40 degrees throughout the race, the wind is nearly guaranteed to be a factor. Mutai and Kipsang won’t have a wall of pacers to block the wind, so they’ll have to take it from the gun. This could very well sway their initial desire to seek the record, but it should still make for some early race drama. Will they go or will they hold back?

Regardless of their pace, the two training mates are the easy favorites. Mutai is the two-time defending champion (the race was not run in 2012), owns three sub-2:05 efforts to his name and seems to thrive more on the strength based courses these days. He struggled to a sixth place finish in London earlier this year, a race Kipsang won, but Mutai knows NYC, knows what it takes to win and looks to become only the fifth athlete in event history to win at least three times. 

For Kipsang, he seeks to continue his reign as arguably the world’s top marathoner. While Dennis Kimetto’s took down Kipsang’s world record mark back in September, Kipsang is riding a recent wave of success. He’s the only runner in history to record five sub-2:05 efforts, with his fastest coming at the 2013 Berlin Marathon, where he set the world best of 2:03:23. Throw in a dominant win at the London Marathon earlier this season, along with the thrilling event of becoming a new father over the past week, and Kipsang has plenty of momentum on his side.

If Kipsang needed any additional motivation, a win for him in New York would allow him to catapult Kimetto in the World Marathon Majors standings, in the last race of the season, meaning he’d take home a cool $500,000 (in addition to his NYC prize money). That’s a sweet pay day.

Best of the Rest

There are plenty of others fully capable of upsetting Mutai and Kipsang. 2010 champion Gebre Gebremariam (ETH), 2013 Boston Marathon champion Lelisa Desisa (ETH), Olympic and World gold medalist Stephen Kiprotich (UGA) and of course defending Boston Marathon champion and 2009 NYC Mararthon winner Meb Keflezighi (USA) all have shown they can win the big race on the right day. 

Of the group, Desisa is the most intriguing. In 2013, he won the Dubai Marathon in a personal best of 2:04:45, only to come back and win the Boston Marathon, while taking home silver at the World Championships. He ran to a half-marathon title this past February in 59:36, while recently winning the B.A.A. Half in Boston in 61:38. He’s fit, rested and has the speed to be able to hang with the co-favorites. 

For Gebremariam and Keflezighi, fans may overlook the two savvy veterans, but that certainly would not be a wise move. Gebremariam won his marathon debut in New York in 2010, while finishing third at the Boston Marathon in 2013. He’s run sub-2:08 twice and if the pace lags early, he can change gears relatively quick, especially considering he has the best 5k and 10k track PRs in the field with 12:52.80 and 26:52.33 bests. For Keflezighi, he won’t be able to run away from the field early on like he did in Boston, but he’s a master tactician and always seems to surprise. Remember, the San Diego-based athlete won an Olympic medal in ’04, NYC in ’09 and Boston this past spring, each win using its own kind of strategy. 

Meanwhile, Kiprotich looks to prove himself on the World Marathon Majors stage. He has the championship medals, but he hasn’t shown the same skills in any of the majors. He placed sixth in London in 2013 and twelfth in London earlier this year. Late summer and fall seems to bring him luck, but he’ll most likely need to run close to his PR of 2:07:20 if he hopes to take home top prize.

Peter Cheruiyot Kirui (KEN), Yuki Kawauchi (JPN), Masato Imai (JPN) and Micah Kogo are all international heavy hitters who should challenge for top five, or even top three. Kirui and Kogo own PRs of 2:06:31 and 2:06:56 respectively. Kogo looks to bounce back after a disappointing 17th place effort in Boston, while Kirui enters having finished fourth in the 10,000m at the Commonwealth Games, while running a 59:22 half marathon back in April. For Kawauchi and Imai, they each run incredibly consistent, which bodes well if conditions are less than favorable Sunday morning. Kuwauchi’s gone sub-2:10 seven times, while Imai’s run sub-2:11 five times.

The Rest of the Americans

Another consistent runner, Ryan Vail (USA), supports the American contingent. Vail enters Sunday’s action coming off a summer which saw him set a new 10k best on the track and a spring where he finished tenth in London in a new PR of 2:10:57. He’s been consistently better each time out over the past few seasons, which bodes well for the 27-year old. 

Nick Arciniaga, Josphat Boit and Luke Puskedra are the other top Americans to watch. Arciniaga, the 2013 USA Marathon Champion, trained with Vail a bit during his most recent marathon build-up. He finished seventh, second American, in Boston with a 2:11:47 performance and has gone sub-2:12 four times. He’s as consistent as Vail and the two should race much of the way together. 

Boit is a bit overlooked heading into the race. He finished second to Arciniaga at the USA Marathon Championships last year, while finishing eleventh in Boston this spring in 2:12:52. If you remember, he led a large portion of the men’s race with Keflezighi, before fading but nearly cracking a top ten finish. He’s got good speed and was the top American (21st overall) at the IAAF World Half Marathon Championships. 

Puskedra, who’s making his marathon debut on Sunday, trains under the tutelage of marathon legend Alberto Salazar. He’s shown success over the half marathon distance and fans have talked for years about his potential at the 26.2 mile distance. He gets his chance soon.

Another year, another exciting TCS NYC Marathon is upon us. Study up, know the key players, follow the race online or in-person and get ready for some big-time racing.



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