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Southwest Region Preseason XC Rankings 2015 - DyeStat

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DyeStat.com   Aug 27th 2015, 5:15pm
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SW 1s: American Fork boys and girls

 

The Southwest Boys

 

By Paul Schmitz


 

Much like Minnesota in the Heartland and Texas in the South, Utah is turning the Southwest region into a virtual Utah-merge meet.  Utah captured the top four spots in the region in 2014 and look to be even stronger in 2015.   Even more impressively, last year Utah was bested only by New York at NXN placing three teams in the top 12  (American Fork #5, Davis #6, Timpanogos #12).   Could this be the year of four bids from the same state?  Besides the strength at the top, Utah and the Southwest are as deep as any region in the country and will be well represented when our national rankings are released next week.     

 

1. American Fork UT:  Led by last year’s super sophomores Casey Clinger and McKay Johns, this duo finished first and second in the 1,600 and the 3,200 Utah state meet after leading their XC team to the Utah and the Southwest Regional championships.  If they can fill in the back of their line-up, watch for them to improve on their already impressive fifth place finish at NXN.   

2. Davis UT:  The Southwest Regional Championship is shaping up as a battle between the front runners of AF and the depth of the pack of Davis.  The sixth place NXN finishers last year lost their top two but return their next five.  It will be intense as the back end of the Davis pack tries to run past the American Fork four and five, picking of valuable points.  It could be that close.  

3. Desert Hills UT:  Returning six of seven from a team that finished fourth at Nike Southwest last year.  Desert Hills continued to show improvement in track this spring and could be rising in the national ranks as we compline our projections.  The 3A school could be one of the contenders on the national level.

4. Mountain Vista CO:  The defending large school state champions in Colorado is the state's best chance to win a bid to Portland.  They lose one of their top runners, but return the next 5 on a team that finished fifth in the Southwest in 2014. 

5. Timpanogos UT:  This team is led by two top 10 finishers from Utah’s 3,200-meter finals, Joe Benson and Will Handley.  Last year's 4A Utah XC champions (of 5 classes) also finished an impressive 12th at NXN.  Three of the top five scorers have graduated and they will need impressive replacements to match those team accomplishments. 

 

Watch List:

Albuquerque Academy NM

Lone Peak UT

Desert Vista AZ

Rio Rancho NM

Ogden, UT

Mountain View AZ

McQueen NV     

 

 

The Southwest Girls

 

By Adam Kopet


 

As in 2014, there is little to separate the top three teams in the region. While their orders may change at some point this season, they have not yet. If the Southwest Region is not selected for a third set of tickets to Portland, expect a hard fought battle for the two automatic berths. In the end, it may come down to the transfers both Davis and American Fork picked up.

 

1. American Fork UT: Last year's Southwest Region champs did not have the performance they wanted at NXN. The Cavemen return four runners from last year, but they have picked up a talented transfer that will help their bid for another region title.

2. Desert Vista AZ: The Arizona champs graduated two runners from the squad that finished fifth in Portland last year. Now they are led by Baylee Jones, younger sister of Danielle Jones. While they have lost the low stick of the elder Jones, the Thunder are experienced and formidable.

3. Davis UT: The Darts come back after a 15th place finish at Nike Cross Nationals, returning five from their varsity squad. Bolstered by a talented transfer, Davis will be looking to improve upon their third place finish at NXN Southwest last year.

4. Cherry Creek CO: The Bruins return all six finishers from last year's seventh place at the Southwest Region Championships (without Jordyn Colter). At the end of September, Cherry Creek will travel to the Nike Portland XC meet (formerly Nike Pre Nationals) where they will take on some of the top teams in the NW.

5. Fairview CO: The Knights return a young team, having graduated two runners from the team that finished fifth at the Colorado 5A State Championships. This is a team to watch over the next two years.

 

Watch List:

Monarch CO

Xavier College Prep AZ

Rio Rancho NM

Albuquerque Academy NM

Pine Creek CO

 

 

The Road to Portland and the Introduction of the 2015 Dyestat Nike Regional Rankings

 

The DyeStat regional rankings offer a glimpse of who we think has the best chance to qualify for Nike Cross Nationals in Portland, Ore. on Dec. 6. 

 

As such, the "regions" are established by the nine areas created by Nike for their qualifying purposes. There have been slight variations to this configuration over time but since 2008 they have remained consistent:  New York, given its dominance in the sport over the years, is a region unto itself.  California, given its massive population and success, is also a region and its qualifiers come from a power merge at the conclusion of the CIF state championships. The rest of the country is divided into 7 areas:

 

The Southeast:  Delaware, Maryland, Virgina, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia and District of Columbia.

The South:  Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas and Mississippi.

The Heartland:  Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin.

The Midwest:  Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Missouri.

The Northeast:  New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island and New Hampshire.

The Southwest:  Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada.

The Northwest:  Wyoming, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Alaska and Hawaii.  

 

These regional meets are open to any high schools from its corresponding states. If there is high demand, selectors ensure that the top teams are guaranteed a spot in the championship race.   The top 2 teams in each of the eight regions and the top 2 teams from the California merge all automatically qualify for NXN.  Nike also invites the top five individuals from the nine regions.  In addition to the automatic qualifiers, there is a committee that selects the next four deserving teams in the nation, bringing the total of participating teams to 22 each year.  

 

Every two weeks on Dyestat, Paul Schmitz (boys) and Adam Kopet (girls) will examine each region and make predictions about which teams are most likely to auto qualify for NXN. It is a big country to cover and we welcome your feedback. DyeStatCal editor Erik Boal handles the California rankings.

 



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4 comment(s)
Paul_Schmitz
Thoughts on some boys teams on the SW Watchlist:
Albuquerque Academy, NM. The 14th place Southwest finisher Albuquerque Academy returns 6 of their top 7. They are led by state 3200 champion Jordan Lesnansee and are a solid mix of seniors and underclassmen. Running in the 2nd largest class in their New Mexico, we are picking them to be the fastest team in the state.
Lone Peak, UT. Last years 8th place finishers in the SW look to move up from that place returning 6 of 7. 3 of those 7 were 9th graders last year.
Desert Vista, AZ. The defending large class Arizona state champions return 3 of their top 4 and 4 of their top 7. After a great spring with several sub 10 3200 runners, they are proof of the depth of this region.
Rio Rancho, NM. The two time defending New Mexico large class state champion is the team to beat again this year in their class. They did not have a great showing at the Nike SW regional last year, but with 6 of the top 7 returning, this could be the year they take the next step.
Ogden, UT. It is tough to catch a break this year in Utah. Ogden returns 5 of their top 7 runners including a very solid top two in Alek Parsons and Garrett Barton, yet we predict it will be difficult for them to match their 6th place SW regional finish from last year.
Mountain View, Mesa, AZ. The 2nd place Arizona State XC finishers have the best shot in the state to knock off Desert Vista. The Toros return 5 of their top 6 runners.
McQueen, NV. The returning large class champion is the team to beat once again in Nevada. However, with the loss of their top two runners, it will be difficult to improve on their 9th place finish in the Southwest Region from last year. .
xctfan
Isn't Oregon in the NW region for NXN?
Paul-Schmitz
Yes, they are. The NW rankings will be out later today.
Paul-Schmitz
We will get that added to that list.
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